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Plenty of commentary, especially post the collapse at Mirpur, about England's prospects in India.The general consensus is that it will be a wipeout, that India will steam roll England. But even the most optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on what camp you are in) supporters are unwilling to concede a 5-0 series win to India. Granted it is early days, and cricket, by its very nature, is a fickle mistress, but lots of parallels are being drawn to England's last outing in India, where they emerged victorious, 2-1.
While there is a lot to merit for cautious optimism, I respectfully beg to differ.
And this stems not from the fact that 2016 is not 2012, but also the following additional factors:
In 2012,
Alistair Cook was on his third tour of India, having played 4 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Kevin Pieterson was on his third tour of India, having played 5 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
James Anderson was on his third tour of India, having played 3 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Ian Bell was on his third tour of India, having played 5 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Monty Panesar was on his third tour, having played 5 tests in 2006 and 2008.
5 players were on their third tour of India, having previously played a sum total of 22 tests between them.
Stuart Broad was on his second tour, having played a test in 2008.
Matt Prior was on his second tour of India, having played 2 tests in 2008.
Graham Swann was on his second tour of India, having played 2 tests in 2008.
3 players were on their second tour of India, having previously played 5 tests between them.
Tim Bresnan played his first 2 tests in the country.
Nick Compton played his first full series in the country.
Jonathan Trott played his first full series in the country.
Samit Patel played his first 3 tests in the country.
Steve Finn played in Kolkata.
Johnny Bairstow played in Mumbai.
Joe Root played in Nagpur.
7 players were on their first trip to India, with no experience of playing in these parts.
In comparison, in 2016
Alistair Cook will be on his fourth trip to India. [8 tests]
James Anderson ( if fit), will be on his fourth tour. [ 7 tests]
2 players on their fourth tour, with 15 tests between them.
Stuart Broad, on his third tour [3 tests]
1 player on his third tour, having played 3 tests previously.
Johnny Bairstow [1 test]
Steve Finn [1 test]
Joe Root [1 test]
3 players on their second tour, having played 3 tests between them.
Ben Duckett [0 tests]
Haseeb Hameed [0 tests]
Adil Rashid [ 0 tests]
Ben Stokes [0 tests]
Jos Buttler [0 tests]
Gareth Batty [0 tests]
Gary Ballance [0 tests]
Moeen Ali [0 tests]
Zafar Ansari [ 0 tests]
Jake Ball [0 tests]
Chris Woakes [0 tests]
11 players with no prior experience of playing in India..
When you look at the numbers, the contrast couldnt be starker.
As Aussies of the 2004-05 vintage can attest, cracking India is hard at the best of times. And by playing India repeatedly, in India ( 1996, 1998,2001,2004), the puzzle was finally solved. And not without a little help from the rain gods and Shashank Manohar's lackey.
England, in 2016, have basically sent a project team on tour.
Alistair Cook has the most experience in these parts, and the next most experienced player is Stuart Broad ( in Jimmy Anderson's absence).
Their bowlers have a sum total of 4 tests bowling in India. In comparison, England bowlers of the 2012 vintage had 11 tests between them.
And the spinners of the 2012 vintage, had played 7 tests, over 2 tours and a bit. England's current spin quartet has a sum total of 0 tests in India.
And then there is the small matter of a wicket keeper playing his first series in India. I have always maintained that England's fortunes are directly linked to Johnny Bairstow's performance behind the stumps, rather than in front of. And notwithstanding Dobell's extolling of Bairstow's performance in Bangladesh, the fact remains that he dropped catches and allowed byes.
And this against a team that the English barely beat ( by 22 runs) and were pounded by 108 runs in the follow up.
And then there is the small matter of the Pataudi Trophy being played over 5 tests, instead of 4 ( or 2 or 3) as in the previous go-arounds. 5 tests, over 6 weeks, across the breadth of India, taxes even the best. For an England side that is top heavy in experience, and very little after, the task is even more daunting.
And then there is the small matter of the Indian batting, bowling and crowds.
Also, unlike 2012, where the gap was closer to 2.5 months, the Indian team will be going into the test series with less than a month between tests.
Anything less than 5-0 and the Indian team will be selling itself short.
While there is a lot to merit for cautious optimism, I respectfully beg to differ.
And this stems not from the fact that 2016 is not 2012, but also the following additional factors:
In 2012,
Alistair Cook was on his third tour of India, having played 4 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Kevin Pieterson was on his third tour of India, having played 5 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
James Anderson was on his third tour of India, having played 3 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Ian Bell was on his third tour of India, having played 5 tests prior, in 2006 and 2008.
Monty Panesar was on his third tour, having played 5 tests in 2006 and 2008.
5 players were on their third tour of India, having previously played a sum total of 22 tests between them.
Stuart Broad was on his second tour, having played a test in 2008.
Matt Prior was on his second tour of India, having played 2 tests in 2008.
Graham Swann was on his second tour of India, having played 2 tests in 2008.
3 players were on their second tour of India, having previously played 5 tests between them.
Tim Bresnan played his first 2 tests in the country.
Nick Compton played his first full series in the country.
Jonathan Trott played his first full series in the country.
Samit Patel played his first 3 tests in the country.
Steve Finn played in Kolkata.
Johnny Bairstow played in Mumbai.
Joe Root played in Nagpur.
7 players were on their first trip to India, with no experience of playing in these parts.
In comparison, in 2016
Alistair Cook will be on his fourth trip to India. [8 tests]
James Anderson ( if fit), will be on his fourth tour. [ 7 tests]
2 players on their fourth tour, with 15 tests between them.
Stuart Broad, on his third tour [3 tests]
1 player on his third tour, having played 3 tests previously.
Johnny Bairstow [1 test]
Steve Finn [1 test]
Joe Root [1 test]
3 players on their second tour, having played 3 tests between them.
Ben Duckett [0 tests]
Haseeb Hameed [0 tests]
Adil Rashid [ 0 tests]
Ben Stokes [0 tests]
Jos Buttler [0 tests]
Gareth Batty [0 tests]
Gary Ballance [0 tests]
Moeen Ali [0 tests]
Zafar Ansari [ 0 tests]
Jake Ball [0 tests]
Chris Woakes [0 tests]
11 players with no prior experience of playing in India..
When you look at the numbers, the contrast couldnt be starker.
As Aussies of the 2004-05 vintage can attest, cracking India is hard at the best of times. And by playing India repeatedly, in India ( 1996, 1998,2001,2004), the puzzle was finally solved. And not without a little help from the rain gods and Shashank Manohar's lackey.
England, in 2016, have basically sent a project team on tour.
Alistair Cook has the most experience in these parts, and the next most experienced player is Stuart Broad ( in Jimmy Anderson's absence).
Their bowlers have a sum total of 4 tests bowling in India. In comparison, England bowlers of the 2012 vintage had 11 tests between them.
And the spinners of the 2012 vintage, had played 7 tests, over 2 tours and a bit. England's current spin quartet has a sum total of 0 tests in India.
And then there is the small matter of a wicket keeper playing his first series in India. I have always maintained that England's fortunes are directly linked to Johnny Bairstow's performance behind the stumps, rather than in front of. And notwithstanding Dobell's extolling of Bairstow's performance in Bangladesh, the fact remains that he dropped catches and allowed byes.
And this against a team that the English barely beat ( by 22 runs) and were pounded by 108 runs in the follow up.
And then there is the small matter of the Pataudi Trophy being played over 5 tests, instead of 4 ( or 2 or 3) as in the previous go-arounds. 5 tests, over 6 weeks, across the breadth of India, taxes even the best. For an England side that is top heavy in experience, and very little after, the task is even more daunting.
And then there is the small matter of the Indian batting, bowling and crowds.
Also, unlike 2012, where the gap was closer to 2.5 months, the Indian team will be going into the test series with less than a month between tests.
Anything less than 5-0 and the Indian team will be selling itself short.
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